Sunday, May 30, 2010

Apple and Microsoft

When I saw the story that Apple had surpassed Microsoft as the world's most valuable tech company, it dawned on me that the example was eerily similar to that of the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Microsoft lucked out when IBM decided to license their operating system rather than buying it about 30 years ago. That choice created a monolithic power that would rule the computer world for 30 years. And for those 30 years rather than pursue any bold innovations or breakthrough technologies, they used their virtual monopoly to stifle and surpress competition, much to the detriment of the entire world. How many people will read this using what is almost universally regarded as the 'worst browser' simply because that's the one that came with their computer?

Though still the dominant OS across the globe, the failure of Microsoft to generate quality products and meet market and consumer expectations has taken a toll on the company's status and reputation. Once the market overlord, it now finds itself struggling to keep pace with the products it releases either flopping or simply not matching up with those of the competition.

"The competition" for Microsoft comes from many sources, but in this case Apple is the focus. A company that was once openly ridiculed now stares in the face of the once mighty giant and smirks. And no one is going to tell them to wipe the smirk from their face.

Apple came to the position they're in because they didn't just follow the market, they created the market. They led the way with creation and innovation, and then managed both to lead the way in the industry. From the Ipod to Itunes, and touch screen tech to the iphone, Apple created demand and built a reputation that would lead them to the dominance they now enjoy.

And there are more than a few parallels between this clash of technology titans and the current landscape of Canadian political theatre.

The Liberal Party for too long rested on the fact that it IS the party that most closely represents Canadian values. But in recognizing this, the party got lazy and rather than pursue bold or innovative policy, they stuck with what they knew, played it safe and in the process failed to keep pace.

The record of the Chretien terms was not without its successes, but it was also not without its failures. These failures only came to be magnified under the leadership of Paul Martin, who when finally coming to lead the party after over a decade of yearning for the top job, seemed to have no ideas, no plans and no way to cope with an emboldened opposition.

And as loathe as I am to compare the Conservative Party to Apple, if only because they are antithetical to much of what Apple is, and they are in many ways the embodiment of Microsoft, they have also organized themselves incredibly well. They know what they're doing, they're ready to do it, and maybe most of all they're ready to take all comers on. And those are three things that can't be said about the Liberal Party.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Macro and Micro

The wonderful blogger, Calgary Grit, has a good post up about riding analysis. It's a great example of the micro analysis that the party needs to be doing both for the short and long-term viability of the party.

When it comes to specific riding analysis, especially for attempts to take ridings that you don't already hold, long-term planning is tough. Most candidates don't want to go down in defeat two or more times before they might see a win. This is especially true of anyone who might be considered a serious candidate with a professional reputation to maintain.

The best way to go about it is to have a strong sacrificial candidate as another candidate is groomed and works to establish the base of support needed to make a legitimate run. But that takes a lot of planning, money and foresight. It also takes luck and the hope that there's no internal party conflict over a nomination. I say this because if you're taking about becoming the only Liberal MP in all of Alberta, it means instant power.

And so while Dan has a point with his post, I think it's important to also look at a larger scale strategy.

As was written in another post on this blog, the voting trends among Canadians are pretty clear. What the Liberal Party needs to do is find a way to reconnect and draw in 'progressive' voters. That's a more widely used term now because of it's expediency, but it applies here. What we need to be doing is coming up with a platform that is economical viable and responsible, but also one that draws in Green Party, marginal NDP, and Red Tory support.

Where as Calgary Grit looked at specific riding chances, one thing that any or all of those ridings would need beyond the long-term effort and the strong candidate that he described, is MOMENTUM....

And right now the Liberal Party is about as stagnant and sedentary as a rock.

With some momentum, with some strong PR and strong policy that might expand and base of support and boost our poll numbers, then we can start targeting specific ridings. But until we can get things right on a larger scale, the aspirations we might have for the ridings mentioned will be stuck on hold for a very long time.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Numbers don't lie

The Liberals seem to have once again adopted the maxim "if what you're doing isn't working, keeping doing the same damn thing because at least you know what the result will be."

WK has his quick analysis, and it reads more like an excuse and a failed rationalization than any kind of positive spin.

But what the numbers show is clear, just as the last 4 elections have demonstrated; a sizeable majority of Canadians do not want a Conservative government. Now Conservative supporters may point out that the Liberals weren't much higher in the popular vote when they won two of their majorities. And they would be right. But the electoral math hasn't changed much. From the time of the 1997 election right up to today, 60% or more of the country has supported a non-conservative party.

The pie charts below illustrate the remarkable consistency of the right and centre-left divide in Canada over the last 15 or so years. The support for conservatives has remained relatively static. It's the support for the Liberals that's dropped, and we need to ask ourselves, as Liberals, "why?". What can we do to regain support and sway voters to return to the Liberal fold? What have we done to make them vote for someone else?

Until we ask these questions and produce some real, tangible answers, we wont move up in the polls. And if we continue to stand silent saying nothing and doing less, than we have no where to go but down and we have no one to blame but ourselves.


1997 election

conservative                   Non-con
38.91%                          61.09%





2000 election

conservative                 Non-con
37.68%                         62.32%





2004 election


Conservative                       Non-con
29.63%                                70.37%




2006 election

Conservative                      Non-con
36.27%                              63.73%



2008 election

Conservative                      Non-con
37.65%                               62.35%


“We make war that we may live in peace.” Aristotle

I have been calling for a culture war since before we lost power. Hell, I thought a 'culture war' was a good idea when we were in power. I can remember working on The Hill and putting dossiers together on the creme de la creme of idiotic Canadian Alliance, and then Conservative party, MPs. But seven years ago rather than going to war I was told we would trust our leader to win the battle, for he was the one the people wanted.

How'd that turn out for us, huh?

There are quotes. I know. I found them. I'm not sure if they aren't being used because we now live in an age where no one reads anything and everything has to be in video format, or maybe they lost the documents, or maybe the idiotic mentality that led to the Paul Martin debacle is still in place and we believe that our leader will lead us to victory based on his merits alone--- despite overwhelming poll numbers to the contrary.

In the last few weeks we have had all the evidence we need that something is brewing. The stage is now set for us to stand up and fight those that would strip gays of not just their right to be married, but their rights in general. It is time we step up and fight so that women can exercise full control of their bodies. It is time we step up and fight so that George W. Bush's America doesn't become Stephen Harper's Canada.

We shouldn't be fighting this war simply because we want power. We should be fighting this war because we want to live in peace. And the religious-conservative agenda of Harper and the Conservative Party mean that peace, along with order and good government, are threatened.